Honeywell Forecasts $233 Billion in New Business Jet Sales Through 2017

New Business Jet Sales Through 2017

Record Delivery Pace Continues into 2009 on Strong International Demand; 14,000 New Business Jet Deliveries Projected Through 2017

Business aviation is still in the midst of a strong up cycle and Honeywell remains well-positioned in the market, according to its sixteenth annual Business Aviation Outlook.

In the report, Honeywell forecasted the delivery of approximately 14,000 new business aircraft from 2007 through 2017, generating industry sales of $233 billion.

Year-to-date, the number of aircraft delivered is up almost 11 percent compared with the same point in 2006 and industry-wide sales are up just over 12 percent, according to the report. For 2007, Honeywell forecasted deliveries of more than 1,000 new business jets for the first time, up from 861 in 2006. Deliveries in 2008 are expected to exceed 1,300. Year-to-date new jet orders have risen more than 100% over the levels seen in the first half of 2006.

“Industry growth has moved into unparalleled territory,” said Rob Wilson, President, Business & General Aviation, Honeywell Aerospace. “Advances in technology are sought by every manufacturer. Innovation to improve cabin comfort, extend range, broaden mission capability and produce business jets that are highly productive, cost-efficient assets is ongoing across the industry, and is coming from existing and emerging business aircraft OEMs.”

Global Purchase Expectations Increase

The 2007 survey indicates record aircraft deliveries will continue into 2008. Chief reasons cited for replacement of current aircraft remain consistent with prior surveys, with age leading overall and range improvement also listed as an important criterion in every region.

North American purchase expectations declined slightly, but expectations in all other world regions expanded significantly. Overall, respondents to this year’s survey said they expect to replace or expand the equivalent of about 33 percent of their fleets over the next five years, up from about 26 percent in the 2006 survey.

The increase in overall purchase expectations is supported by the increasingly global nature of the industry. International buyers now account for about 50 percent of the new aircraft deliveries projected over the next five years. Purchase expectation trends were up in Asia, Africa and the Middle East and rose strongly in Europe.

Beyond 2008, the outlook remains strong, with annual deliveries expected to run in the 1,200-1,400 range for the balance of the decade, with only modest cyclical variability.

“World economic conditions play a key part in the industry expansion we’ve experienced but steady gains in aircraft value offered to operators also stimulate growth. Value to the operator takes the form of improved aircraft reliability, mission flexibility, cabin productivity, comfort and convenience,” said Wilson. “Improved engines, safety systems, cockpit avionics and cabin information and comfort improvements along with advances in aerodynamic design continue to deliver compelling gains in value to fleet operators, pilots and passengers.”

Fueling Increased Demand for Business Jets

Based on new jet models mentioned by survey respondents, the 2007 Business Aviation Outlook projected fairly balanced demand growth across most business jet segments over the next five years. Medium and medium-large aircraft together account for about 25 percent of the projected demand through 2012. Light and light-medium aircraft make up about 19 percent of projected five-year demand.

The largest grouping is in long-range and ultra long-range aircraft at 26 percent. The strength in the long and ultra-long-range segment is consistent with the last two year’s findings and reflects increased need for aircraft capable of trans-Pacific flights, as well as the growth in demand in other regions requiring more long range operations as trade and economic growth flourish.

North America is expected to account for about 50 percent of business jet deliveries over the next five years, a lower-than-proportional share of global demand reflecting somewhat slower growth in the region and the very high levels of purchase expectations in all other areas. Honeywell has reported on this trend for several years and the survey is tracking with observed shifts in orders and deliveries very closely.

Honeywell's Aerospace Business Aviation Outlook

The Honeywell Aerospace Business Aviation Outlook and the purchase expectations it summarizes are a snapshot of expected business aircraft sales at a point in time and reflect fleet operators’ views of current events, such as political and economic conditions, fuel costs and changes in regulations, taxes and user fees that would affect expected sales in the near term. Honeywell Aerospace’s Business Aviation Outlook does not reflect the impact of unforeseen events such as a war, major economic shock, fuel crisis or new regulatory restrictions. The Outlook is based in part on Global Insight’s baseline economic forecast assumptions that call for economic growth at quarterly rates in the two-to-three percent range for the next six quarters, and exceeding three percent thereafter.

Honeywell Aerospace has produced its Business Aviation Outlook for 21 years and has shared the findings publicly for the last 16 years. This year’s Business Aviation Outlook is derived from interviews with over 1,500 corporate flight departments around the world that operate more than 15 percent of the world’s turbine-powered fixed-wing aircraft. The Outlook is also shaped by information from aircraft manufacturers, other industry sources and Honeywell Aerospace’s analysis of the impact of various economic indicators on industry demand trends. Honeywell’s Business Aviation Outlook tracks purchase expectations for business jets with gross take-off weight (GTOW) of less than 100,000 pounds.

For more information on the Outlook, visit,