Record Delivery Pace Continues into 2009 on Strong International Demand;
14,000 New Business Jet Deliveries Projected Through 2017
Business aviation is still in the midst of a strong up cycle and Honeywell
remains well-positioned in the market, according to its sixteenth annual
Business Aviation Outlook.
In the report, Honeywell forecasted the delivery of approximately 14,000 new
business aircraft from 2007 through 2017, generating industry sales of $233
Year-to-date, the number of aircraft delivered is up almost 11 percent
compared with the same point in 2006 and industry-wide sales are up just over
12 percent, according to the report. For 2007, Honeywell forecasted deliveries
of more than 1,000 new business jets for the first time, up from 861 in 2006.
Deliveries in 2008 are expected to exceed 1,300. Year-to-date new jet orders
have risen more than 100% over the levels seen in the first half of 2006.
“Industry growth has moved into unparalleled territory,” said Rob Wilson,
President, Business & General Aviation, Honeywell Aerospace. “Advances in
technology are sought by every manufacturer. Innovation to improve cabin
comfort, extend range, broaden mission capability and produce business jets
that are highly productive, cost-efficient assets is ongoing across the
industry, and is coming from existing and emerging business aircraft OEMs.”
Global Purchase Expectations Increase
The 2007 survey indicates record aircraft deliveries will continue into
2008. Chief reasons cited for replacement of current aircraft remain consistent
with prior surveys, with age leading overall and range improvement also listed
as an important criterion in every region.
North American purchase expectations declined slightly, but expectations in
all other world regions expanded significantly. Overall, respondents to this
year’s survey said they expect to replace or expand the equivalent of about 33
percent of their fleets over the next five years, up from about 26 percent in
the 2006 survey.
The increase in overall purchase expectations is supported by the
increasingly global nature of the industry. International buyers now account
for about 50 percent of the new aircraft deliveries projected over the next
five years. Purchase expectation trends were up in Asia, Africa and the Middle
East and rose strongly in Europe.
Beyond 2008, the outlook remains strong, with annual deliveries expected to
run in the 1,200-1,400 range for the balance of the decade, with only modest
“World economic conditions play a key part in the industry expansion we’ve
experienced but steady gains in aircraft value offered to operators also
stimulate growth. Value to the operator takes the form of improved aircraft
reliability, mission flexibility, cabin productivity, comfort and convenience,”
said Wilson. “Improved engines, safety systems, cockpit avionics and cabin
information and comfort improvements along with advances in aerodynamic design
continue to deliver compelling gains in value to fleet operators, pilots and
Fueling Increased Demand for Business Jets
Based on new jet models mentioned by survey respondents, the 2007 Business
Aviation Outlook projected fairly balanced demand growth across most business
jet segments over the next five years. Medium and medium-large aircraft
together account for about 25 percent of the projected demand through 2012.
Light and light-medium aircraft make up about 19 percent of projected five-year
The largest grouping is in long-range and ultra long-range aircraft at 26
percent. The strength in the long and ultra-long-range segment is consistent
with the last two year’s findings and reflects increased need for aircraft
capable of trans-Pacific flights, as well as the growth in demand in other
regions requiring more long range operations as trade and economic growth
North America is expected to account for about 50 percent of business jet
deliveries over the next five years, a lower-than-proportional share of global
demand reflecting somewhat slower growth in the region and the very high levels
of purchase expectations in all other areas. Honeywell has reported on this
trend for several years and the survey is tracking with observed shifts in
orders and deliveries very closely.
Honeywell's Aerospace Business Aviation Outlook
The Honeywell Aerospace Business Aviation Outlook and the purchase
expectations it summarizes are a snapshot of expected business aircraft sales
at a point in time and reflect fleet operators’ views of current events, such
as political and economic conditions, fuel costs and changes in regulations,
taxes and user fees that would affect expected sales in the near term.
Honeywell Aerospace’s Business Aviation Outlook does not reflect the impact of
unforeseen events such as a war, major economic shock, fuel crisis or new
regulatory restrictions. The Outlook is based in part on Global Insight’s
baseline economic forecast assumptions that call for economic growth at
quarterly rates in the two-to-three percent range for the next six quarters,
and exceeding three percent thereafter.
Honeywell Aerospace has produced its Business Aviation Outlook for 21 years
and has shared the findings publicly for the last 16 years. This year’s
Business Aviation Outlook is derived from interviews with over 1,500 corporate
flight departments around the world that operate more than 15 percent of the
world’s turbine-powered fixed-wing aircraft. The Outlook is also shaped by
information from aircraft manufacturers, other industry sources and Honeywell
Aerospace’s analysis of the impact of various economic indicators on industry
demand trends. Honeywell’s Business Aviation Outlook tracks purchase
expectations for business jets with gross take-off weight (GTOW) of less than
For more information on the Outlook, visit,